Welcome back to our first 100% return rate season. This is the group that you will tell your grandkids about. The group that will eventually meet up for a live draft in Vegas, Atlantic City, or beautiful Rochester, NY. The group that suffered through the atrocious shit talking of CrazedCatz.
This year’s draft was full of surprises and broken trends. Carson failed to secure a top-notch QB-WR combo, but did manage to grab Eli’s WR3 in Randle. Jack failed to make a mind-numbing draft pick (Dion Branch ’12) which makes me think he farmed out his draft to a fantasy expert. Draper continued his retaliation assault on me after sending out my pre-draft video, crushing me with another one-liner for which I had no response for. My laundry is done sir. After drafting Michael Turner, which made me puke up beer wine, Colin said “at least I didn’t pick a WR on IR” clearly forgetting that he drafted Percy Harvin a few picks earlier. Even if Percy avoids the IR, he’s not worth holding onto at this point.
The recurring theme of this draft was ‘fuck Marcotte’. I was bid-up on just about every player I wanted, and in turn, almost screwing up my draft. Sproles, Amendola, Cameron, Wilson, Welker, Sudfeld and Hilton all fell into this category, to name a few. At least Janda had a good time seeing me stuggle. All of this culminated in the $73 bid of CJ Spiller. If he stays healthy, I have no problem with that bid. He could easily be the #1 overall RB.
Jenny is hot. I’m getting closer and closer to that age where you need to start dating in order to meet a girl, who doesn’t drive you completely insane, and that you could fathom the idea of spending the rest of your life with. God that sounds awful just typing it. I’m entertaing the idea of www.fantasymatch.com with the sole intent of meeting girls who are into fantasy sports. I don’t think it’s a viable business plan, but it seems to improve the chances of meeting a girl that can deal with my habit. To be honest, the only thing I’m putting a ring on this year is my finger after winning the league. I’ll have to use my winnings to buy a ring first, and I probably won’t even do that. My story just unraveled itself. Nevertheless, I’ll be checking out trophies for this year. I’ve been talking about it for too long and it makes sense to buy it the year I win it. Humans are born selfish – get over it.
I really need to make MoreThanFantasy take off at some point so I can stop working for the man and do something I actually love. If you have any ideas for in-season articles, simple or crazy, shoot them to me so I have more to work on. I’m looking to change the game, not replicate it. Why can’t Professional Fantasy Sports Commissioner be a real thing? I’d fucking kill that interview and make it to the top of my profession. I realistically could commish 100+ leagues if it was my full time job. Unfortunately, I’d need to charge over $200 per league to make a living off of it. Again, not a solid business plan.
Anybody want to see some power rankings? This year I’ve created yet another strategy to analyze each team and justify placing them in their post-draft ranking. I looked at Top Draft Picks and Team Potential. Top Draft Picks are players that would be drafted in the first 5-6 rounds of a standard draft. Team Potential is the amount of players with breakout potential (according to my fantastic draft kit – still available for $5). E.g. “Team Name” (TDP 6 / TP 4).
#1 – Kevin MacArthur (6/4) – yup. I may not be 100% accurate in my power rankings, but I do stay true to my word. Not only will I analyze my team for you, but I will explain to you how I followed my 2013 Blueprint to winning a league. Quarterbacks are being overvalued this year due to 2011’s influx of high scoring elite QB’s. It was the trend last year, burning many teams who spent on a QB and inexplicitly continued over into 2013. Blueprint Rule #1: don’t overspend on a QB. There are a couple glaring observations to take away from the chart to the right (Tumblr won’t allow me to paste my table, sorry). Quarterbacks generally have the least variation from year to year in their production. If we assume that these guys produce similar point totals this year, QB’s like Stafford, Kaepernick, Wilson, Eli and RG3 will all give you significant point totals for their value. Auction Drafts are all about maximizing value, which I believe I did very well across the positions. Blueprint Rule #1: get at least 2 top 15 WR’s. Roddy and Andre were both around $40, and although they are getting older, they are still reliable weapons in high-powered offenses. James Jones could prove to be a steal at $13 if Jordy misses any sort of time and/or Jones duplicates his 2012 performance. As I mentioned before Spiller was expensive but could definitely produce statistics valued at $70. Supply and Demand: 1, Marcotte: 0. Blueprint Rule #3: get 3 starting RB’s. I didn’t execute exactly to plan, but Bradshaw and Richardson are both starting RB’s who should push 200-250 carries this year. Supply and Demand got me again on Bradshaw, but Richardson was a steal in my book. I grabbed Bernard, Thomas and Dunbar as backup/handcuffs in case Bradford’s foot explodes after a cut. Blueprint Rule #4: don’t spend for any TE not named Jimmy Graham. Admittedly, I am weak at the TE position. I drafted 2 young, athletic guys, who could possibly have decent years this year. Streaming the TE position has proved fairly successful in the past few years and after the 2nd tier of TE’s, production is really up in the air. I saved up for Sudfeld, but Pidgeon had +$1 max bid on me. The rest of the rankings were heavily influenced by this blueprint.
#2 – Password is Taco (5/3) – Jake waited patiently and struck just as the RB’s started wearing thin. He snagged 2 of the top PPR RB’s of the last 3 years in Rice and McCoy. Andre Brown is a borderline starting RB because of his timeshare with Wilson. He could both lose/gain touches with Wilson’s breakout/bust. Bryant, Garcon and Hilton make up a great WR core albeit with some injury risk. I love Hilton this year and if the preseason in any indication of what is to come, he is going to be a star. Jake didn’t spend on a TE and made sure he had a couple to plug and play. Getting Stafford at $16 was still quite the value. His TD’s will surely rise this year (and I don’t mean a boob-job).
#3 – Rafi (6/3) – quite possibly the highest ranking Draper has ever received. This high of a ranking isn’t quite deserving as Draper’s recent history shows he’s just a terrible manager. If Chris Davis wasn’t juicing he’d be in rough shape in GM 2012. $30 was spent on the 2 runnings QB’s. I’m highly against this strategy, because if you can’t trade one of these QB’s then it’s a waste of money. Fortunately he got a value all-star core of WR’s in Bowe, Nelson and Smith who should all have WR2-WR3 years. Lance Moore gets you solid production week to week without filling up the stat sheet. Chris Givens is my favorite breakout WR this year and Vincent Brown is a popular sleeper. Steven Ridley should have another solid year in one of the league’s best offenses and he’s got Miller and Wilson waiting to breakout. Gronkowski was purchased at quite the value and he’s got Tony G just in case things don’t work with the 1-armed dancing man. Looks like Pidgeon on the dance floor. Of course Draper’s team could completely fall apart if Nelson stays hurt and Bowe becomes complacent after getting paid. I’ll surely kick myself in the ass if he’s team sucks again. RAFI BOMB!
#4 – Schrute Farm Beets Andre Nowzik (6/4) – yes Jack, you still have to change your name being the reigning Sack-O champion. Fortunately, bearing luck only Andre could come upon, you won’t be finishing last for a 3rd straight year. Kaepernick at $15 was another decent value. He has as much upside as any non-elite QB. His RB’s are plentiful, solid but unproven. Lacy has looked fantastic this preseason and could be a steal if he gets the carries. Murray oozes with talent but obviously can’t stay healthy. Bell and Vereen are two sleepers that will be great flex plays each week. Megatron and Amendola (oh, how I love you) make up a top notch 1-2 combo at WR. The sky is the limit for a healthy Amendola. Jack stole Cameron from me alleviating the value in him, but he still should reap the reward of a solid season. I wouldn’t put it past Jack to fuck this up, but it looks like he’s secured a top 6 spot this year. Take a load off, Andre.
#5 – Jay Cutless Supreme (4/4) – Janda’s RB2 kept from from the top spot. Not quite sure how it dropped him to #5 but they are my rankings and I’m sticking to them. Since there is no league theme to tie to this analysis, here’s a picture of a Cutlass Supreme. Janda landed 4 solid WR’s including the almighty PPR beast: Brandon Marshall. I did everything in my power to bid him up on his Bears, but he wouldn’t budge. That dude has issues. Luck at $5 was a great buy. I wish I hadn’t grabbed Wilson for $7 after seeing that. I don’t see Hillman or Ball getting significant carries this year, you have to think they will end up splitting carries when healthy. Mendenhall hasn’t definitely lost a step, but he enters the season as the starter. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.
#6 – I’m Goin To Tha U (5/2) – how I felt when Strach started a bidding war for Sproles. Definitely my best hyperlink so far. Sproles is being undervalued this year due to his regression last year. That was due to injury and the loss of Sean Payton. He’s back and he’s going to go nuts on opposing defenses. You know the league is getting good when you look at 5-6 teams and think “that’s the best team”. I don’t think there is a clear best team, but Strach is definitely pushing it. I would say he has 4 top-25 picks in a PPR league: Richardson, Graham, Cobb and Sproles. Ryan isn’t too far past them with his recent outbreak. I love Woodhead as a PPR sleeper this year. Greg Jennings value is cloudier than Snoop Dogg’s car. If Ponder’s limp arm can get him the ball enough, he could still push 1,000 yards. The same goes for talented rookie Cordarrelle Patterson.
#7 – The Franchise (5/1) – Taube’s really earning the name finishing in the top half of every league I’ve ever played in with him. Executing the Studs & Duds strategy to a T, Taube secured 3 of the top 10 RB’s along with Mr. Catch Anything That Falls. I think Fitz is going to bounce back in a big way after last year’s disappointment. It’s very hard to judge this strategy as it is predicated on $1 player’s breaking out, which is the hardest thing to predict. I’ve stayed away from Tavon because I fear the hype won’t be worth the results. Taube executed ¾ of my Blueprint but I don’t think the WR’s will be able to carry his team to a win every week. The inconsistency will ultimately lose him a few weeks here and there. I’m sure Taube will continue to be a Waiver Wire bully spending on $100 on every possible breakout he sees. What’s $10 when you’re competing for hundreds? Take notes ya’ll. And I can say ya’ll now because I live in Texas. BTTJ’s answer is what makes him awesome.
#8 – Vinegar Strokes (5/2) – Dan has some serious talent on his team along with some serious ‘blah’ players. We all know that Rodgers, Green, Gore and Lynch will have productive seasons and Stevie Johnson is about as consistent as it gets for a WR3. Greg Olsen was a great cheap option at TE who should put up similar numbers again this year. If defenses mattered, I’d note that he clearly has the best one out there, but they really don’t. At least not this year, fuck you Chicago. But guys like Williams, Hartline, Greene, Rice and Moore all can’t be trusted week to week. DeAngelo could return some value is Stewart remains injured, but if they are both healthy, neither will put up starting numbers. I love Golden Tate this year. Sanders has a great opportunity to breakout filling in the Mike Wallace void. If the Patriots want somebody, it usually means they have talent. Edleman could come of value with one Amendola injury – great snag at the end of the draft.
#9 – Danza Slap (5/2) – I just now learned what a Danza Slap is. Touché Roy. Despite drafting AP for 2/3 of his price last year, Colin still managed to be one of the few managers to not win a league with AP on his team. Going less heavy on studs and focusing on a balanced lineup, Roy built a pretty safe looking team. Take away bye weeks and you have yourself a top notch team. But with Turner the Burner’s best days behind him there’s a slim chance he makes any sort of impact this year. I understand the concept of handcuffing, but I don’t foresee Forsett having any value even if he takes over for an injured MJD. The lack of depth was the main reason for the #9 ranking.
#10 – Rodney Ruxin (4/5) – Pidgeon often thinks he is sneaky while being completely obvious. Evidence. I was going to relate his sneakiness to this draft when I realize he wasn’t being sneaky at all while failing to secure a good team. He’s just bad at fantasy sports now. Back in the day, you could count on Pidgeon to finish among the top half of the league in almost every league. The days when only 2-3 managers consistently checked their teams; him being one of them. Now, the information age has taken us all by storm, and suddenly managers everywhere can see all of the information that us “go-hards” used to look up in our spare time. By now you know that this is not just an excuse for Pidgeon, it is a fact of fantasy life. The only logical explanation is that he doesn’t know his sports as well as the rest of us. Sounds more like Andre than Ruxin. He also doesn’t know when he is being inappropriate. Again, more like Andre. Going against BP#1 he snagged the likely #1 QB this year in Brees. I can’t really say that was a bad move, but I would highly advice against drafting the glass-brothers: Ivory and Mathews. In an attempt to screw over Taube, Pidgeon grabbed Romo to backup Brees just in case Brees isn’t on pace for 5,000 yards. The only upside to Pidgeon’s team is his upside. His mark of 5 high-upside players topped the league. Gordon, Sudfeld, Broyles, Pierce and Tate all qualified in my book. He’s 1 or 2 injuries away from having a crazy-good RB core. With Foster’s health in question, Tate could shape up to be a value pick. An injury to Ray Rice would likely put Pierce in the top 10 RB’s. The stars would have to align for both of these guys breaking the top 10 this year. I think Sudfeld plays a solid role in the NE offense and could still hold some value once Gronk returns. I’ll never count him out of a league, but I love to make him face an uphill battle. Oh yeah, Nicks for $31? “Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice…”
#11 – Carson (4/3) – Arian Foster. $64 on a player who has barely practiced this preseason, is getting shots in his back and has pain emanating down his legs from this mysterious back issue. But Carson has been known for taking risks in the past. And they usually pay off. His other RB is a high risk/high reward player in CJ2Knomore. The Titans brought one of the slowest backs in league history in for short yardage and goal line situations. This could bring down CJ’s touchdown totals and his yardage has been declining over the past few years. Mark executed BP#1 to a T grabbing his guy Eli for cheap. Outside of his risky RB’s, Mark grabbed some questionable WR’s as well. I love D-Thomas, but the addition of Welker has everyone wondering how the targets will be allocated this year. Torrey Smith is a boom or bust option week in and week out. To my knowledge, I still don’t think he can run a full route tree. Kenny Britt is talented as hell but was limited by injuries last year and has a very shaky QB situation. Randle could be quite the value if banana fingers can’t stay healthy. Mark’s not yet prepared for Foster to be out week 1 which doesn’t bode well for his start. I’ll surely eat my words and apologize if Carson manages to win his 4th title in 5 years, but I don’t see it happening. No hyperlinks?!? Ah, there we go. And this. If you don’t find these funny, it’s most likely because it’s an inside joke. I’m killing it out here!
#12 – Brooklyn Kingz (5/0) – I’ve been burned too many times by ranking Hong in the top half of the league. He’s kind of like the Cowboys – everybody thinks they’re going to be good and they just disappoint. As you can see, Hong as virtually no upside on his team and is limited to his starting lineup. As seen in previous rankings, this gets you knocked down a peg. Draft 3 QB’s while also having an elite QB; knocked down a peg. Draft 3 defenses – knocked down a peg and tumble into an eternal well. Please get some help Hong. Draft Darren McFadden… you see where I’m going with this. I love Hong’s starting WR’s and RB’s. Julio, Welker and Cruz should all be top 25 WR’s and Morris shows no signs of slowing down is his sophomore campaign. But the only other RB on the squad is Pead who will get 2-3 points per week. RB’s are gold in fantasy. They are the almighty. They always have and always will be. Drafting 4 unknown RB’s is better than having none at all. Those 4 slots currently filled with QB’s and Def’s should be backup and backup to backup RB’s. Wow, I forgot to mention, he also drafted 2 kickers. I don’t know what is worse.